Rohan Goswami and Liz Hoffman, in a blockbuster report for Semafor:

JetBlue has tapped advisers to assess the viability of selling itself to a rival airline, and has specifically scenario-planned how a deal with United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, or Southwest Airlines might fare in Washington, according to people familiar with the matter.

Assuming the folks in Seattle have the appetite, they would have a strongest pro-competition argument. JP Morgan’s math on the domestic market share of the combined entities:

• Southwest + JetBlue = 22%
• United + JetBlue = ~16%
• Alaska + JetBlue = 7%

Importantly, and unlike United, they barely compete on either domestic or international routes, which Alaska made the centerpiece of its sales pitch to acquire Hawaiian.

And together, Alaska and JetBlue would be a strong fourth competitor in the northeast, as opposed to the current situation, where JetBlue is losing ground to two giants in United and Delta.

Meanwhile, for oneworld flyers, an Alaska acquisition of JetBlue would reopen the airline’s path to the alliance.

American previously planned to sponsor JetBlue into oneworld when both airlines started the short-lived Northeast Alliance in 2020. By July that year, they were telling the DOJ they wouldn’t.